Maritime lore states that when the rats are leaving the ship before it hauls out, it is a clear sign that the ship is doomed.
That's how I now see John McCain's presidential campaign. Republicans are tossing McCain under the bus and endorsing Barack Obama. McCain campaign people are playing the blame game - with each other. There's even talk that McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, are at odds. Maybe even Palin is more interested now in campaigning for 2012 than for 2008. It appears the good ship McCain is taking on water. What a shame.
I had intended to make an election prediction some time ago. I had already mulled over how I thought the election would go and had honed in on the final percentages. But, I thought I'd wait for the debates and see how things shaped up after that. Then the entire election changed. What was once a close race that bore some analysis became an apparent landslide that warranted a postmortem. Now it seems the only question might be how bad the final damage is.
We're just over a we
ek away from election day and here is how the race has shaped up.Obama
I think he's run a decent race. I was a little nervous a month or so ago. It seemed that McCain's negative attacks were working. Obama was slow to counter. His ability to seal the deal and connect with working-class voters wasn't showing any great improvement. For a few days, I started to wonder whether McCain might actually be able to win this race.
Then McCain opened his mouth, told us how the economy was strong and watched as the financial structure of this country crumbled.
Suddenly, the Obama that seemed too calm, too above it all had just the right temperament and demeanor. He was cool under pressure and showed poise during the crisis. Funny how that happens. He demonstrated the same in the debates. He also showed a grasp of the issues and sealed the deal with voters as to whether he could walk the walk and talk the talk of a president. He's been gaining ground ever since.
It seemed that his change message was resonating but his inexperience was a concern. Once voters saw him handle a crisis and heard his message and saw him calm and collected, they were convinced he could not only be electable but successful as commander in chief. Meanwhile, McCain appeared erratic, temperamental and desperate to come to grips with what was happening. As steady as Obama appeared, McCain looked equally unsteady. Meanwhile, Palin didn't have such a great week either.
Obama hasn't made the mistakes to derail his campaign. He established a 50-state strategy and established a formidable grassroots campaign that may give his campaign a huge advantage against what appears to be a very unorganized and inconsistent McCain campaign.
Obama's pick of Biden has been okay. I know think he might have been able to get away with a Tim Kaine selection, but certainly Biden bolstered the ticket. He also did fine in the debate. He hasn't been the pit bull I expected and hasn't been the guy to help Obama win over the working-class voters as I had hoped. For the most part, I think Biden has had just a minor positive impact on the race. His mouth has only gotten him into trouble on occassion.
The landscape and climate has certainly worked in Obama's favor, and he's done well to take advantage. He's proved himself in tough situations and sold his message effectively. He even got away from the too professorial explanations he once had for questions. Even though he doesn't seem to have the intense fire or connection with voters that you hope for, that has helped him to a degree. He's appeared calm and steady and proven himself to be a leader. His polls show that he's winning over the electorate all over the map and in all categories.
There aren't many things I can think of that Obama could have or should have done better. I can't say he's run a perfect campaign, but he's run a good one, thorough, well-planned and with a consistent message. He's proven himself as a leader and shown he has a grasp of the issues and an ability to communicate it to the electorate.
McCain
First of all, I once liked McCain. I liked him because he seemed like a moderate and a straight shooter. When John Kerry won the nomination, I actually hoped McCain would be his running mate. I thought that would be a good ticket.
That McCain is not the same candidate I've seen in this election. He's sold his soul to the darker side of the GOP. He's caved in to the religious right and become a slave to the Bible thumping, flag waving, rhetoric spewing, fear mongers of whacko right. He's turned himself into such a narrow-minded candidate that he's a caricature of his former straight-talking self. His campaign has become more about pollution than solution. And, that's why he's getting his ass kicked. The so-called honorable John McCain resorted to racist tactics, divisive themes, lying and any other tactic of desperation he could think of. He's come off as a grumpy and tired old man with outdated ideas.
McCain has had a couple of good moments in this campaign. I thought his attack on Obama being a celebrity was effective. He had the high ground on the experience issue. His ability to attrack indepents made him a candidate Obama should have feared. His Joe the Plummer rhetoric and "Spread the Wealth" attacks had potential.
But, McCain never took advantage of all that. He brought in Palin, nullifying his charges of Obama's celebrity and inexperience. His ability to reach the independents was compromised when he went to such great length to embrace the religious right's agenda.
Palin is an obvious mistake. McCain looks like he was pandering to the conservatives and to women. It's a desperate move that backfired. Palin has become a laughing stock to everyone but GOP's base. Her celebrity status brought energy to the campaign on one front but damaged its credibility on so many others. Trying to be so-called reformers was a way to shake things up, something McCain needed. He hadn't distanced himself with the failure that is George W. Bush. So, he needed something to sell to the electorate. His appeal with Palin was limited and will likely cost him more votes than he gets.
I don't know whether another VP candidate might have been better. Mitt Romney might have helped but might have hurt just as much - even though his help in Michigan and on the economy might have been a benefit. I can't help but think Tom Ridge might have been a good choice, especially helping in Pennsylvania, but who knows how much the right would have revolted. I wonder if Mike Huckabee might have made the base happy without all the credibility issues that Palin brought.
Anyway, his VP choice was a mixed bag (with lipstick). It killed his ability to nail Obama on the experience and celebrity issue.
By embracing the right so closely, he also sacrificed his hope of reaching middle of the road voters. He wasn't going to disavow Bush, until he made a desperate attempt of it last week. So any hope of a broader appeal to the electorate wasn't happening.
McCain's campaign has also been a mess. It's been unorganized and inconsistent. Each day he's brought a different message. Often he's contradicted himself. Gaffs like not knowing how many houses he had or not knowing who or what he was talking about in interviews didn't give voters confidence in the 70-plus year old who only looks young when he's appearing in footage where he's helping an elderly Nancy Reagan walk.
Then came the economic crisis. McCain said the fundamental of the economy were strong and then he contradicted himself. He looked desperate and clueless during that week. His stunt of suspending his campaign and blowing off David Lettermen didn't help. McCain very well may have lost the election in that span of a few days.
Basically, McCain had hoped to destroy the credibility of Obama. Voters would be left with no other choice but to pick the safer, more experienced candidate. Unfortunately for McCain, Obama handled himself well, he didn't self destruct and couldn't be destroyed. As Obama solidified his credibility and candidacy, McCain unravelled in his.
Since then, McCain has appeared as a desperate, irrational, temperamental and out of touch candidate grasping at straws to sway voters. And he's only made things worse.
Summary
Elections always come down to the lesser of two evils. McCain had hoped to so destroy Obama and any credibility he had, that voters would not dare vote for him. But, if anything, McCain has proven to be the more unreliable and scarier of the two candidates. Obama has survived relatively unscathed and weathered the negative tactics and the poor economic times well. McCain hasn't been as fortunate. The election was supposed to be a referendum on Obama, when he passed that test, McCain had nothing else. Ultimately, McCain has proven to be the greater risk, looking more like the status quo with no new ideas. For a change electorate looking for leadership, hope and something new, McCain hasn't offered it. He's offered more of the same politics and negative hypocritical rhetoric. And this time, the electorate seems to be smartening up and aren't falling for it. I think McCain definitely had a chance to win this election but he's run a poor and narrow-minded campaign. In the end, I think McCain lost this election just as much as Obama will have won it. He couldn't sell the electorate on an unfit Obama, and he also couldn't sell the electorate on why he's the better option.
Prediction
Originally, I thought it might be a five-point race. I didn't think Obama would get into the 50-percent range. So, I was going to predict that it would be a 48-43 Obama win. Now, I do think Obama can hit 50. I think the double-digit margin might tighten before the end of election day, but I think the final numbers will be around 50 or 51 to 43-44. It will be a margin somewhere between six and eight points.
As for the electoral map, I'm thinking Obama is headed for over 300. I have a feeling McCain might be able to secure Ohio and/or Florida but Obama will win most of everything else in the swing states - like Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico and New Hampshire. He might pick up a few more red states, since there's been an average of a 14-point swing in 10 states that Bush won in 2004. They're all headed Obama's way now.
McCain has had a couple of good moments in this campaign. I thought his attack on Obama being a celebrity was effective. He had the high ground on the experience issue. His ability to attrack indepents made him a candidate Obama should have feared. His Joe the Plummer rhetoric and "Spread the Wealth" attacks had potential.
But, McCain never took advantage of all that. He brought in Palin, nullifying his charges of Obama's celebrity and inexperience. His ability to reach the independents was compromised when he went to such great length to embrace the religious right's agenda.
Palin is an obvious mistake. McCain looks like he was pandering to the conservatives and to women. It's a desperate move that backfired. Palin has become a laughing stock to everyone but GOP's base. Her celebrity status brought energy to the campaign on one front but damaged its credibility on so many others. Trying to be so-called reformers was a way to shake things up, something McCain needed. He hadn't distanced himself with the failure that is George W. Bush. So, he needed something to sell to the electorate. His appeal with Palin was limited and will likely cost him more votes than he gets.
I don't know whether another VP candidate might have been better. Mitt Romney might have helped but might have hurt just as much - even though his help in Michigan and on the economy might have been a benefit. I can't help but think Tom Ridge might have been a good choice, especially helping in Pennsylvania, but who knows how much the right would have revolted. I wonder if Mike Huckabee might have made the base happy without all the credibility issues that Palin brought.
Anyway, his VP choice was a mixed bag (with lipstick). It killed his ability to nail Obama on the experience and celebrity issue.
By embracing the right so closely, he also sacrificed his hope of reaching middle of the road voters. He wasn't going to disavow Bush, until he made a desperate attempt of it last week. So any hope of a broader appeal to the electorate wasn't happening.
McCain's campaign has also been a mess. It's been unorganized and inconsistent. Each day he's brought a different message. Often he's contradicted himself. Gaffs like not knowing how many houses he had or not knowing who or what he was talking about in interviews didn't give voters confidence in the 70-plus year old who only looks young when he's appearing in footage where he's helping an elderly Nancy Reagan walk.
Then came the economic crisis. McCain said the fundamental of the economy were strong and then he contradicted himself. He looked desperate and clueless during that week. His stunt of suspending his campaign and blowing off David Lettermen didn't help. McCain very well may have lost the election in that span of a few days.
Basically, McCain had hoped to destroy the credibility of Obama. Voters would be left with no other choice but to pick the safer, more experienced candidate. Unfortunately for McCain, Obama handled himself well, he didn't self destruct and couldn't be destroyed. As Obama solidified his credibility and candidacy, McCain unravelled in his.
Since then, McCain has appeared as a desperate, irrational, temperamental and out of touch candidate grasping at straws to sway voters. And he's only made things worse.
Summary
Elections always come down to the lesser of two evils. McCain had hoped to so destroy Obama and any credibility he had, that voters would not dare vote for him. But, if anything, McCain has proven to be the more unreliable and scarier of the two candidates. Obama has survived relatively unscathed and weathered the negative tactics and the poor economic times well. McCain hasn't been as fortunate. The election was supposed to be a referendum on Obama, when he passed that test, McCain had nothing else. Ultimately, McCain has proven to be the greater risk, looking more like the status quo with no new ideas. For a change electorate looking for leadership, hope and something new, McCain hasn't offered it. He's offered more of the same politics and negative hypocritical rhetoric. And this time, the electorate seems to be smartening up and aren't falling for it. I think McCain definitely had a chance to win this election but he's run a poor and narrow-minded campaign. In the end, I think McCain lost this election just as much as Obama will have won it. He couldn't sell the electorate on an unfit Obama, and he also couldn't sell the electorate on why he's the better option.
Prediction
Originally, I thought it might be a five-point race. I didn't think Obama would get into the 50-percent range. So, I was going to predict that it would be a 48-43 Obama win. Now, I do think Obama can hit 50. I think the double-digit margin might tighten before the end of election day, but I think the final numbers will be around 50 or 51 to 43-44. It will be a margin somewhere between six and eight points.
As for the electoral map, I'm thinking Obama is headed for over 300. I have a feeling McCain might be able to secure Ohio and/or Florida but Obama will win most of everything else in the swing states - like Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico and New Hampshire. He might pick up a few more red states, since there's been an average of a 14-point swing in 10 states that Bush won in 2004. They're all headed Obama's way now.
The high voter turnout should help Obama. A youth vote, which usually doesn't appear, might make a difference for Obama. Obama's grassroots organization should be strong to get out voters. But who knows what kind of BS the GOP will pull to nullify votes or sabotage election counts. In one state, the GOP was already trying to tell people the election is Wednesday, instead of Tuesday.
By Tuesday, the McCain camp could be in such disarray that GOP voters might just stay home and give up, promtping an Obama landslide. I think McCain will put up a decent enough showing, as GOP voters hope to salvage some of the senatorial and congressional races, to keep it within that six to eight point margin. But continuouss chaos on the GOP side and a momentum swing for Obama could make it an ugly night for McCain.
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